The analysis of climate is very local in nature, hence a local level and specific understanding is extremely important. With this understanding, a study was conducted in Bale highlands of southeastern Ethiopia to analyze climate change under future climate scenarios. Historical climate data (1984-2016) and future climate data (2020-2095) downscaled using the ensemble of all GCMs, were analyzed to understand the local level climate change. The analysis showed that rainfall and temperature were highly variable in highlands of southeastern Ethiopia through time slices of 2030’s, 2050’s and 2080’s under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The result of historical data analysis showed that, the seasonal kiremt rain was increased by 6.1 mm/yr at Sinana station and 2.9 mm/yr at Robe station. The results of this study showed that future projected seasonal rainfall total of belg was increased by 46.0 and -50.4% in 2030’s, 33.8 and 39.7% 2050’s, 59.2 and 39.4% 2080’s under both scenarios at Sinana station. Similarly, it was increased by 99.7 and 84.9% in 2030’s, 76.3 and 88.7% in 2050’s, 90.4 and 85.6% in 2080’s under both scenarios at Robe station. It was observed that in the upcoming century, the amount of belg rainfall is expected to increase than that of kiremt rainfall at both stations. The historical data mean, maximum and minimum temperatures trend at Sinana and Robe stations showed significant increases. Future projected air temperature change was investigated and it was shown that the mean air temperature increased by 1.2°C at Sinana and 1.8°C at Robe in 2030’s under RCP4.5 scenario. Additionally, the mean air temperature increased by 1.7 and 2.2°C at Sinana and 2.2 and 2.7°C at Robe in 2050’s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Similarly, the mean air temperature was significantly increased by 2.1 and 2.9°C at Sinana, while 2.7 and 4.0°C at Robe in 2080’s   under both scenarios. Therefore, rainfall and temperature had a severe change that justifies climate change and global warming need for site specific study.

Key words: GCMs, RCPs, climate change, climate variability.
 

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